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What Is Promotion Form ?; - ten year period.
Topic Started: Oct 6 2006, 10:55 PM (297 Views)
Letsby Avenue
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Paul Tait
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What is Promotion form, how many points do we actually need to get at least second place -
which is promotion isn't it ?

Barnsley went up with only 80 points
Bradford - 87
Man City - 89
Blackburn - 91
WBA - 89
Leicester - 92
WBA - 86
Wigan 87
Sheff Utd - 90

Over this ten year period, the average number of points
to secure second spot is..........88.

Which works out at 1.91 points per game.

Any average less than that and we should be looking to the play-offs.

**thumbup
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BluenoseJoJo
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Geoff Horsfield
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acjboyle has us at 1.8 points per game at the moment and we seem to be on a downward trend.

At what point do we worry and start thinking sure, we'll catch up, just like we did last season?

Scary stats :o
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Letsby Avenue
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Paul Tait
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I noticed his sig, but it was the poll for New Years Day that made me look the stats up.
Having given up trying to figure out the movie quiz picture.
:D
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Hirsty
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Administrator
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Maybe so - but even with a 1.8 average, we are still in 2nd spot. As long as there are at least 22 teams with lower "average points per game" (or, in other words, less total points...) below us at appx 3.30pm on May 6th next year, I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. Even if that means an average of 1.8 per game then...

(Thought for the day : Theoretically, a team could be promoted as champions on 48 points... . IF every single game in the season (for all teams) except one - one the "champions" win - was to end in a draw. The losers, obviously, would finish bottom on 45 points !!).

KRO,

C.
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Letsby Avenue
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Paul Tait
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Barnsley went up with only 80 points
Bradford - 87
Man City - 89
Blackburn - 91
WBA - 89
Leicester - 92
WBA - 86
Wigan 87
Sheff Utd - 90

I forgot Middlesborough in that ten year record. (Its the vodka !)

They went up on 91 points. Which doesn't alter it a great deal, we'd still need 88.1 points as average for second spot.

By way of contrition, I've also worked out the average number of points after the 10th game, over the last 10 years - including Boro....................

19.4 points was the average for the team promoted 2nd after 10 games.

But there were 3 really low scoring teams, WBA (16 points after 10 games) - Blackburn (12 ) and Bradford (14).

I must get a hobby - I'm sober again.


**thumbup
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Hirsty
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LBA - Are you Angus Loughran (aka Statto) in disguise ?? :ph43r: :lol: :D

Grab yourself a beer - quick. Sounds like you need one... :drink: **thumbup

KRO,

C.

PS: Do you realise there is an "actual" Letsby Avenue near Sheffield City Airport ??.
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block23steve
Geoff Horsfield
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Am i right in the theory that the league table - as it stands today, is very tight. Therefore teams are inconsistent. Therefore, the number of points required to actually get 2nd place come the end of the season might be lower than in previous years? The way the table looks at the moment we could have a different team every week in 2nd place, thus not increasing the points tally signifcantly.
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acjboyle
Geoff Horsfield
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BluenoseJoJo
Oct 7 2006, 12:23 AM
acjboyle has us at 1.8 points per game at the moment and we seem to be on a downward trend.

At what point do we worry and start thinking sure, we'll catch up, just like we did last season?

Scary stats :o

One way to look at it:

Last season, Watford finished 3rd on 81 points. On our current form, of 1.8 points per game, that would see us finish on (to the nearest whole point) 83 points, thus finishing ahead of last year's third place. This (83 points enough for auto promotion) was also true for the 2003/2004 and the 2002/2003 seasons.

Another way:
The points average we are gaining so far this season is second best in the league - 2nd best is an automatic promotion place.


83 points - enough to get promotion
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blueblood
Johnny Vincent
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all is good but how many points did the team in 3rd place below them have?
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acjboyle
Geoff Horsfield
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blueblood
Oct 7 2006, 12:28 PM
all is good but how many points did the team in 3rd place below them have?

81 points.. Can't remember the other 2 seasons i mentioned - less than 83 points
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bcfc83
Geoff Horsfield
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BluenoseJoJo
Oct 6 2006, 11:23 PM
acjboyle has us at 1.8 points per game at the moment and we seem to be on a downward trend.

At what point do we worry and start thinking sure, we'll catch up, just like we did last season?

Scary stats :o

catch up to who? we are still second in the league, as someone else said as long as there are 22 teams below come may the 6th we will be promoted no matter what are avaerage points and othe rubbish stats people can come up with!

ps stat man i am not having a go at you here, just people who dont seem to realise how many teams are in the league and where we are at the moment!
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nick_p
Kenny Burns
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acjboyle
Oct 7 2006, 11:25 AM
BluenoseJoJo
Oct 7 2006, 12:23 AM
acjboyle has us at 1.8 points per game at the moment and we seem to be on a downward trend.

At what point do we worry and start thinking sure, we'll catch up, just like we did last season?

Scary stats  :o

One way to look at it:

Last season, Watford finished 3rd on 81 points. On our current form, of 1.8 points per game, that would see us finish on (to the nearest whole point) 83 points, thus finishing ahead of last year's third place. This (83 points enough for auto promotion) was also true for the 2003/2004 and the 2002/2003 seasons.

Another way:
The points average we are gaining so far this season is second best in the league - 2nd best is an automatic promotion place.


83 points - enough to get promotion

Er, Sheffield United finished second with 90 points last season. So 83 points guarantees nothing, except third spot - doesn't it?

In 2003-4, Albion finished second with 86 points, so again you'd finish short. And in 2002-3, Leicester had 92 points.

In other words, stop worrying about finishing above the team in third place - all that gets you is third spot; you need to finish above the team in second place. :rolleyes:
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acjboyle
Geoff Horsfield
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nick_p
Oct 7 2006, 02:47 PM
acjboyle
Oct 7 2006, 11:25 AM
BluenoseJoJo
Oct 7 2006, 12:23 AM
acjboyle has us at 1.8 points per game at the moment and we seem to be on a downward trend.

At what point do we worry and start thinking sure, we'll catch up, just like we did last season?

Scary stats  :o

One way to look at it:

Last season, Watford finished 3rd on 81 points. On our current form, of 1.8 points per game, that would see us finish on (to the nearest whole point) 83 points, thus finishing ahead of last year's third place. This (83 points enough for auto promotion) was also true for the 2003/2004 and the 2002/2003 seasons.

Another way:
The points average we are gaining so far this season is second best in the league - 2nd best is an automatic promotion place.


83 points - enough to get promotion

Er, Sheffield United finished second with 90 points last season. So 83 points guarantees nothing, except third spot - doesn't it?

In 2003-4, Albion finished second with 86 points, so again you'd finish short. And in 2002-3, Leicester had 92 points.

In other words, stop worrying about finishing above the team in third place - all that gets you is third spot; you need to finish above the team in second place. :rolleyes:

Finishing above the team in third spot?............

That'd be 1st or 2nd in the table, unless I'm mistaken.
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nick_p
Kenny Burns
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acjboyle
Oct 7 2006, 02:11 PM
nick_p
Oct 7 2006, 02:47 PM
acjboyle
Oct 7 2006, 11:25 AM
BluenoseJoJo
Oct 7 2006, 12:23 AM
acjboyle has us at 1.8 points per game at the moment and we seem to be on a downward trend.

At what point do we worry and start thinking sure, we'll catch up, just like we did last season?

Scary stats  :o

One way to look at it:

Last season, Watford finished 3rd on 81 points. On our current form, of 1.8 points per game, that would see us finish on (to the nearest whole point) 83 points, thus finishing ahead of last year's third place. This (83 points enough for auto promotion) was also true for the 2003/2004 and the 2002/2003 seasons.

Another way:
The points average we are gaining so far this season is second best in the league - 2nd best is an automatic promotion place.


83 points - enough to get promotion

Er, Sheffield United finished second with 90 points last season. So 83 points guarantees nothing, except third spot - doesn't it?

In 2003-4, Albion finished second with 86 points, so again you'd finish short. And in 2002-3, Leicester had 92 points.

In other words, stop worrying about finishing above the team in third place - all that gets you is third spot; you need to finish above the team in second place. :rolleyes:

Finishing above the team in third spot?............

That'd be 1st or 2nd in the table, unless I'm mistaken.

You won't finish second with 83 points. You might push the team currently in third spot down to fourth spot, but 83 points won't get you higher than third, however much you'd like to believe it's true.
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acjboyle
Geoff Horsfield
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nick_p
Oct 7 2006, 04:01 PM
acjboyle
Oct 7 2006, 02:11 PM
nick_p
Oct 7 2006, 02:47 PM
acjboyle
Oct 7 2006, 11:25 AM
BluenoseJoJo
Oct 7 2006, 12:23 AM
acjboyle has us at 1.8 points per game at the moment and we seem to be on a downward trend.

At what point do we worry and start thinking sure, we'll catch up, just like we did last season?

Scary stats  :o

One way to look at it:

Last season, Watford finished 3rd on 81 points. On our current form, of 1.8 points per game, that would see us finish on (to the nearest whole point) 83 points, thus finishing ahead of last year's third place. This (83 points enough for auto promotion) was also true for the 2003/2004 and the 2002/2003 seasons.

Another way:
The points average we are gaining so far this season is second best in the league - 2nd best is an automatic promotion place.


83 points - enough to get promotion

Er, Sheffield United finished second with 90 points last season. So 83 points guarantees nothing, except third spot - doesn't it?

In 2003-4, Albion finished second with 86 points, so again you'd finish short. And in 2002-3, Leicester had 92 points.

In other words, stop worrying about finishing above the team in third place - all that gets you is third spot; you need to finish above the team in second place. :rolleyes:

Finishing above the team in third spot?............

That'd be 1st or 2nd in the table, unless I'm mistaken.

You won't finish second with 83 points. You might push the team currently in third spot down to fourth spot, but 83 points won't get you higher than third, however much you'd like to believe it's true.

Just basing it on last seasons points tally and the fact that no 2 teams (apart from an early season flourish from Cardiff) looks likely to storm too far ahead of the rest.

No harm in having some optimism.
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Bluenose4life
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Paul Tait
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It doesn't matter what we average now. It's only the start of the season. No one can say just because we average that now we will have 83 at the end of the season. However I see the point and Bruce needs to get us playing better or let someone else have a go
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mr penguin
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hirsty
Oct 6 2006, 11:33 PM
(Thought for the day : Theoretically, a team could be promoted as champions on 48 points... . IF every single game in the season (for all teams) except one - one the "champions" win - was to end in a draw. The losers, obviously, would finish bottom on 45 points !!).

KRO,

C.

How about 47 points...

W 1 D 44 L 1

All 24 teams could finish with that record (each having won a game & lost a game)

The team with the best goal difference would be champions
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mr penguin
Sponsored by Flybe.com
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Letsby Avenue
Oct 7 2006, 12:00 AM
Barnsley went up with only 80 points
Bradford - 87
Man City - 89
Blackburn - 91
WBA - 89
Leicester - 92
WBA - 86
Wigan 87
Sheff Utd - 90

I forgot Middlesborough in that ten year record. (Its the vodka !)

They went up on 91 points. Which doesn't alter it a great deal, we'd still need 88.1 points as average for second spot.

Interesting analysis **thumbup

In a nutshell....

- our results so far are in line with a full season total of 83 points

- 83 points would have been good enough for automatic promotion in just 1 of the last 10 seasons

- i.e. unless we improve it's unlikely that we will get automatic promotion

As i have been saying for some time : this season has play-offs written all over it




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nick_p
Kenny Burns
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Optimism comes from good performances and results on the pitch, not by trying to re-engineer statistics. 1.8 points is good enough for the play-offs, not automatic promotion. And considering we're only ten games into a 46-game season, it's a little premature to decide now that everyone is going to mill as they've been doing.
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