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My Take On Our Current Debt And Possible Shortfall
Topic Started: Jul 22 2011, 10:02 AM (267 Views)
Trueblood
Member Avatar
Kenny Burns
[ *  *  *  * ]
I realise this is my take on the situation and expect lots of criticism because the majority of it is guesswork but thought i would put it out there anyway for discussion, but on paper whether I am only 20-50% wrong in my figures to me anyway, it looks unsustainable at the moment

Lets hope whoever these new investors are they have very deep pockets, because it is going to a need a huge multi-million pound investment to keep this club afloat just for this season, even if Dann, Zigic, Foster, Michel and Jerome go as well.

Don't forget Carson was struggling to keep the club afloat (mortgaging his own properties) even with all the Sky money last season

As it stands

Wouldn't imagine 1 million pounds would pay the wages of the players and club staff for a week with the liabilities we have at the moment. 52 million

Still need to pay instalment monies for Zigic, Beaujesour, Davies, Michel and Foster and 15% of any profit on Dann to Coventry, got to be a minimum of £5 million still to pay to this season

Current Debt to service?

What we get this season

Parachute payment 16 million

TV money ?

What we can expect to come in guaranteed 24 home matches this season (+ 1 Europa)
average 20000 at £25 = 12 million pounds

Sponsorship deal no details yet but Karen got a poor deal with F&C something like 7 million over 3 years, can't see anything better with current predicament so estimate 2 million a year for any new deal

Individual match sponsorship?

Transfer fees received , not likely to get full amount up front usually somewhere between 30-50% up front Johnson and Gardener at best £6 million max

Xtep kit deal 2 million

Mcleish compensation 3 million

Hopefully the wage bill can come down significantly if the rest of the big earners do get sold, but wouldn't surprise me if there is still more outgoings than incomings than the 16 million shortfall I have listed and even if we still sell our best players to cover the 16 million at 50% fees up front we would need to get nearly 32 million for them.

We have no collateral left to secure against loans as far as I can tell as it has been already done, so unless Carson still has loads of money flowing through those bank accounts of his still, investment is the only thing that can help us and what return can they expect if we have sold nearly all our best players, at best they will be propping up a Championship club for the foreseeable future unless they continue to invest more millions to take a risk on getting promoted

How long will the season ticket money, parachute payments and transfer money they have got upfront last paying the outgoings, debts and wages through this summer and early part of the season, because once it its gone it will be just match sponsorship, TV and gate money coming into the club, so sometime next year that's when things are likely to start biting really hard and we will find out just how a precarious position this club is in

West Ham owners reckon even with the selling of there players, it is going to cost them 40 million pound of there own monies (loans of course not his kids inheritance) to keep the club afloat this season. Although our debt is not as big as West Ham's it is still going to take a huge investment just to get through this season imho

From everything I read last season, there was no plan for relegation, and we are in real dire straits at the moment. It has been 2 months since relegation and our largest shareholder and Club President hasn't said one word to try and reassure us the paying customers in that time, just suspending the shares to protect himself and the shareholders investment. I know Pannu has made some statements but hopefully we will hear from the organ grinder not the monkey about what is happening to the club and any future plans soon.
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sam_tiltonrdblue
Geoff Horsfield
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if wed have stopped up it may have been ok
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Trueblood
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Kenny Burns
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sp1032
Jul 22 2011, 10:04 AM
if wed have stopped up it may have been ok

We clearly lived beyond our means last season as well as he had to mortgage his own properties to pay the wages last season.

We needed to live within our means like Wigan, West Brom and Stoke do, unfortunately we don't appear to have done so and are now paying the price, still hindsight is a wonderful thing.
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fishblues
Kenny Burns
[ *  *  *  * ]
Trueblood
Jul 22 2011, 10:08 AM
sp1032
Jul 22 2011, 10:04 AM
if wed have stopped up it may have been ok

We clearly lived beyond our means last season as well as he had to mortgage his own properties to pay the wages last season.

We needed to live within our means like Wigan, West Brom and Stoke do, unfortunately we don't appear to have done so and are now paying the price, still hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Whelan has pumped £100M into Wigan so they do not live within their means.

Stoke are doing a good job but the longer you are in the premiership the more you commit to big wages so the harder it is when you get relegated.
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Prawnman
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Paul Tait
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fishblues
Jul 22 2011, 10:12 AM
Trueblood
Jul 22 2011, 10:08 AM
sp1032
Jul 22 2011, 10:04 AM
if wed have stopped up it may have been ok

We clearly lived beyond our means last season as well as he had to mortgage his own properties to pay the wages last season.

We needed to live within our means like Wigan, West Brom and Stoke do, unfortunately we don't appear to have done so and are now paying the price, still hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Whelan has pumped £100M into Wigan so they do not live within their means.

Stoke are doing a good job but the longer you are in the premiership the more you commit to big wages so the harder it is when you get relegated.

Its catch 22 isn't it? The fans demand investment and better players, the manager wants better players, the board invest in players to the tune of 35-40m, manager fails and gets relegated leaving the club in mess, blames board for his failings, board have to try and stabilize fiances, fans get angry at board because we have to sell the players who got us relegated, board try to find new investment, fans get more angry at board because they are not spending more money on players and call them horrible names, old manager gets away scott free to rivals.......

Its a funny old game isn't it? :blink:
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Blueareya
Martin Grainger
[ *  *  * ]
Prawnman
Jul 22 2011, 10:47 AM
fishblues
Jul 22 2011, 10:12 AM
Trueblood
Jul 22 2011, 10:08 AM
sp1032
Jul 22 2011, 10:04 AM
if wed have stopped up it may have been ok

We clearly lived beyond our means last season as well as he had to mortgage his own properties to pay the wages last season.

We needed to live within our means like Wigan, West Brom and Stoke do, unfortunately we don't appear to have done so and are now paying the price, still hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Whelan has pumped £100M into Wigan so they do not live within their means.

Stoke are doing a good job but the longer you are in the premiership the more you commit to big wages so the harder it is when you get relegated.

Its catch 22 isn't it? The fans demand investment and better players, the manger wants better players, the board invest in players to the tune of 35-40m, manager fails and gets relegated leaving the club in mess, blames board for his failings, board have to try and stabilize fiances, fans get angry at board because we have to sell the players who got us relegated, board try to find new investment, fans get more angry at board because they are not spending more money on players and call them horrible names, old manger gets away scott free to rivals.......

Its a funny old game isn't it? :blink:

Thats the long and short of it! **thumbup
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sam_tiltonrdblue
Geoff Horsfield
[ *  *  *  *  * ]
Prawnman
Jul 22 2011, 11:47 AM
fishblues
Jul 22 2011, 10:12 AM
Trueblood
Jul 22 2011, 10:08 AM
sp1032
Jul 22 2011, 10:04 AM
if wed have stopped up it may have been ok

We clearly lived beyond our means last season as well as he had to mortgage his own properties to pay the wages last season.

We needed to live within our means like Wigan, West Brom and Stoke do, unfortunately we don't appear to have done so and are now paying the price, still hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Whelan has pumped ?00M into Wigan so they do not live within their means.

Stoke are doing a good job but the longer you are in the premiership the more you commit to big wages so the harder it is when you get relegated.

Its catch 22 isn't it? The fans demand investment and better players, the manger wants better players, the board invest in players to the tune of 35-40m, manager fails and gets relegated leaving the club in mess, blames board for his failings, board have to try and stabilize fiances, fans get angry at board because we have to sell the players who got us relegated, board try to find new investment, fans get more angry at board because they are not spending more money on players and call them horrible names, old manager gets away scott free to rivals.......

Its a funny old game isn't it? :blink:

agree a lot of it is due to on the pitch failings so the board cant take all the blame everybody should players managers and board
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